Global Outlook

Analyzing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy uncertainty indicators: Interpreting market expectations and cyclical fluctuations

Researched the construction of a monetary policy uncertainty index (MPU) based on news report frequency, analyzed the peak characteristics of this indicator at key policy junctures (such as before the October 2015 FOMC meeting), and explored the information transmission mechanism between market expectations and actual policy actions, providing a quantitative perspective for understanding the global monetary policy cycle.

Wei Chen10/28/2026, 20:201 min readSource notes included

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Monetary Policy

Analyzing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy uncertainty indicators: Interpreting market expectations and cyclical fluctuations

This paper constructs a framework based on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU) index to analyze the volatility of market expectations regarding central bank policy from a macroeconomic cycle perspective, and to explore the risk transmission mechanism during policy shifts.

Wei Chen · 1 min read · 10/28/2026, 20:20

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Monetary Policy

Analyzing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy uncertainty indicators: Interpreting market expectations and cyclical fluctuations

This paper constructs a framework based on the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU) index to analyze the volatility of market expectations regarding central bank policy from a macroeconomic cycle perspective, and to explore the risk transmission mechanism during policy shifts.

Wei Chen · 1 min read · 10/28/2026, 20:20

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Regional Economy

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